The Art of Conflict Foresight
A Model for Leading Stakeholders through Complex Change
Have you heard of the concept of “the elephant and the rider”? Developed by psychologist Jonathan Haidt, the idea is that we all have within us a Rider — our rational side. And an Elephant — our emotional side. The Rider is sitting on top, holding the reins; we think it’s in charge.
However, think about how much bigger the Elephant is compared to the Rider. As Chip and Dan Heath put it in Switch, “Anytime the six-ton Elephant and the Rider disagree about which direction to go, the Rider is going to lose. He’s completely overmatched.”
And there isn’t just one elephant…
The elephant-and-rider metaphor is critical for understanding how to lead change. But for changes that are especially complex, we need to take it further. Because there isn’t just one elephant in any of our heads. Pixar depicted this beautifully in the film Inside Out (pictured at left), where we see the emotions of Anger, Disgust, Fear, Joy, and Sadness alternating who takes command in the main character Riley’s head. Similarly, in the world of psychotherapy, Dr. Richard Schwartz’s model — called internal family systems — is about how each of us has different parts within ourselves.
When we’re leading change in organizations, it’s sometimes easy to reduce things to a binary: who is “for” vs. “against” change. But binary thinking is what leads to high conflict (conflict that takes on a life of its own, where nobody wins) vs. healthy conflict (where necessary friction leads to a better outcome). Plus, the truth is usually much more complex than who is “for” or “against” any change.
Why it’s crucial to learn from all the elephants
Across any change process, we all have multiple, conflicting thoughts and emotions. Part of us feels excited about a new challenge, but another part is anxious or skeptical. One of our key stakeholders may express optimism about the future but then note dismay soon after. Our specific objections to a change might vary from day to day and even seem in conflict with one another.
Many prefer to ignore the negative parts — whether within us or others — hoping they’ll disappear. However, ignoring these parts of ourselves often just leads them to clamor to be heard and go on overdrive. Additionally, each of the parts within us has something valuable to teach us about how to ensure the change is successful.
Emotions are a form of unprocessed intelligence; befriending the elephants allows us to learn from these emotions, making them an ally and source of critical information.
Introducing The Conflict Foresight Model
After working with hundreds of leaders grappling with how to lead complex change in higher ed, I developed The Conflict Foresight Model, based on the most common elephants in our heads that show up when dealing with organizational change. This model allows us to get ahead of potential conflicts, using stakeholder concerns — the many different elephants within our heads — to improve, rather than impede, change leadership.
Scroll through the slides below to view the Conflict Foresight Model, or download a printable 11x17 infographic here. If you’d like updates as I expand upon the model, scroll down to the bottom of this page to join my mailing list, and I’d love to hear from you as to how you’re using it in your work!
Ensuring intent aligns with impact
The phrase “leadership presence” is too often narrowly associated with what’s on the surface: what we wear, how we stand, how we sound.
But the most important — and challenging — part of leadership presence is ensuring that our messages have the intended impact. Unfortunately, there’s frequently a disconnect between what we as leaders say and what our audience members hear [see my comic at right].
When we take the time to really understand the elephants in our stakeholders’ heads, we ensure that our intent is aligned with our impact. Beyond messaging, we gain valuable, closer-to-the-ground intel about what obstacles (real and perceived) need to be overcome for a change to succeed.
Creating a Culture for Open Dialogue
For our teams to feel comfortable addressing the "elephants in the room," we must create an environment where they can speak openly about challenges, emotions, and concerns. The following resources provide insights into the foundational aspects of psychological safety, trust, and healthy conflict that support these efforts:
Amy Edmondson’s Work on Psychological Safety: Edmondson's research highlights the importance of creating environments where team members can take risks and express themselves without fear of negative consequences.
Amanda Ripley’s High Conflict: Ripley’s book provides a deep dive into how conflicts can escalate and what leaders can do to prevent that.
Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, and Sheila Heen’s Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most: This is considered THE book on difficult conversations and how to help ensure they’re productive.
Patrick Lencioni’s Five Dysfunctions of a Team: Lencioni discusses the critical role of conflict in team success and how avoiding it can lead to dysfunction. This is essential reading for understanding how to navigate team dynamics.
Karla McLaren’s Work on Emotions in the Workplace: McLaren’s research explores the role of emotions in the workplace and how they can be harnessed to improve communication and reduce conflict.
[re:Work] Manager Actions for Psychological Safety: A helpful one-page checklist by Google’s re:Work
[re:Work] Team Effectiveness Discussion Guide: A helpful one-page checklist by Google’s re:Work, that includes psychological safety questions.
The Center for Creative Leadership - Trust and Psychological Safety: A wealth of articles about building and maintaining trust.
Workhuman Blog - What is a Skip-Level Meeting?: Skip-level meetings (meetings with those who are managed by your direct reports) can enhance trust and transparency, providing a direct line of communication between executives and frontline employees.
Boundaries Empowerment Roadmap: A set of resources and an assessment I developed to identify where you might be self-sabotaging when it comes to maintaining and holding boundaries. Often, avoiding conflict — which is what ends up turning healthy conflict into high conflict — is about boundaries.
